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Understanding the dynamical structure
and evolutional characteristics of convective storms has long been an active
area of research in the meteorological community. Investigations,
both observational and numerical, have centered on the most nocuous of
convective storms such as the paradigmatic supercell and the larger mesoscale
genitors, convective squall line systems and complexes. Supercell
storm structure has received the greatest amount of attention due to the
disproportional amount of damage and the loss of life procured by these
storms (Klemp 1987; Johns and Doswell 1992; Przybylinski 1993; Moller et
al. 1994). A secondary investigative outgrowth in convective meteorology
has focused on mesoscale convective systems (hereafter MCSs) and their
severe progeny, the derecho (Johns and Hirt 1987). Widespread damaging
winds engendered from derecho-producing mesoscale convective systems (hereafter
DMCSs) can cause F1 to F2 damage and thus requires intense examination.
Understanding the quasi-steady nature of MCSs
has been the focus of multiple observational investigations (Duke and Rogash
1992; Johns 1993; Johns et al. 1990; Przybylinski 1995; Bentley et al.,
forthcoming) and numerical modeling experiments (Schmidt et al.1990; Weisman
1990, 1992, 1993; Rotunno et al.1988; Skamarock et al. 1994). This paper
is an examination of the current theory of strong, long-lived MCSs.
First, an explication of the environmental conditions necessary to create
linear convection will be had. Secondly, this study will procure an understanding
of the important dynamical relationship that forms between the convectively
induced cold pool and low-level environmental shear, and to what purpose
is this relationship important in the initiation, maintenance, and propagation
of MCSs. This aspect of the study will require a physical interpretation
of numerical model results. Additionally, MCS commonalties, the rear-inflow
jet and bookend vortices, will be introduced and related to MCS phase structure.
Further, relating model observations to those surveyed in atmospheric observations
will synthesize these data.
MCS Environment
Any investigation into MCS dynamics must commence
with an understanding of the environment that begets linear convection.
Bluestein and Jain (1985) categorized severe convective lines by analyzing
11 years of WSR-57 reflectivity data from Norman, Oklahoma. In developing
the four primary classes of convective line formation (broken line, back
building, broken areal, embedded areal), Bluestein and Jain investigated
and compared sounding and hodograph structures of the near-MCS environment
in each of these cases. Analysis found large latent instability (moderate
to high CAPE) within the pre squall-line environments along with an average
line-normal shear of 45? clockwise with respect to the squall line (Bluestein
and Jain 1985; Rotunno et al. 1988). This shear vector is distinctively
different than the near 90? average line-normal shear vector needed to
sustain MCS structure in modeling investigations (Weisman 1992; Przybylinski
1995). Rotunno et al. (1988) conclude that the large skew in line-normal
shear is caused by the large proportion supercells comprising squall lines
that are characteristic of Oklahoma.
Bentley et al. (forthcoming, hereafter BMB)
define the synoptic-scale conditions associated with DMCSs in the northern
Plains by analyzing surface, upperair, and reanalysis datasets of the DMCS
near environment. This climatological study confirms previous MCS
investigations (Johns and Hirt 1987; Johns 1993) that demonstrate that
the low to mid-level environment is significant in discerning MCS development,
sustainment, and movement (BMB).
Diagnosing a DMCS environment must begin
with a determination of the convective instability and shear regimes.
BMB found that a high degree of convective instability is necessary for
the development of DMCSs. An averaged CAPE of 2609 J/kg and lifted
index of - 4 degrees C was found from the 19 DMCS events examined in their
study. Notwithstanding, a wide variation in CAPE and lifted
index values may be detected, especially if forecasting a cool season event.
A large theta-e ridge (maximum values of 336K - 342K) with a distinct gradient
is also frequently found extending into a DMCS genesis region (BMB).
Both CAPE and the relative humidity of the low to midlevels are significant
in determining cold pool strength (Rotunno et al. 1988; BMB). Further,
the strength of the convectively induced cold pool is dependent on the
source region of the downdraft. A stronger cold pool can be expected
if the downdraft air originates at the level of minimum theta-e (Weisman
and Przybylinski 1998).
Subsequent to convective instability, diagnosing
the low to midlevel environmental shear is significant in determining whether
convection may initiate and become linear. Using the Klemp Wilhelmson
(1978) numerical model, Weisman (1992, 1993) found that moderate to strong
low to midlevel vertical shear is a necessary characteristic of MCS environments.
Significant low to midlevel line-normal shear (shear that is perpendicular
to the convective MCS line) is critical in controlling MCS structure and
evolution (Weisman 1993, BMB).
Because significant numbers of MCSs
are nocturnal, the evening sounding should be studied with great precision
to determine whether the correct shear environment is transpiring.
For determination of MCS environment in the daytime, morning sounding data
must be augmented with profiler data to determine if the environmental
shear conditions are favorable for long-lived MCSs. Hodograph shape
in MCS environments is often similar to conditions that are conducive to
supercells (Bluestein and Jain 1985; Weisman and Przybylinski, 1998).
This constitutes a significant problem in determining whether supercells,
a squall line composed of supercells, or a convectively linear MCS will
develop. However, BMG did discern line-normal, unidirectional flow
occurring in the mid and upper-levels of the DMCS environment in most cases.
Analysis of hodograph and sounding data is out of the scope of this paper;
the reader should review Bluestein and Jain (1985), Evans (1998), Weisman
and Przybylinski (1998) for further discussion on these forecasting techniques.
Johns and Hirt (1987) and BMG further describe
the synoptic conditions favorable for producing MCS and DMCSs. BMG
found that nearly 50% of warm season DMCSs in the Northern Plains originate
in northwest upper-flow patterns under a ridge of high pressure.
Other synoptic conditions favorable for the development of DMCSs include
a midlevel short-wave trough migrating into the genesis region and a weak
surface quasi-stationary thermal boundary that is often oriented east-to-west.
Both BMG and Johns and Hirt (1987) detected significant warm air advection
(WAA) in the 850 and 700 mb levels that occurs poleward of the quasi-stationary
thermal boundary. WAA provides upward vertical motion that allows
for the release of potential energy in the DMCS genesis region (Johns and
Hirt 1987; Johns and Doswell 1992; BMG). The before mentioned conditions
are not always found in the DMCS environment (Przybylinski 1995).
Other dynamically induced DMCSs constitute a significant portion of cold-season
DMCSs (Johns 1993).
Conceptual Model: MCS Kinematics, Thermodynamics, and Features
Before an inquiry into the dynamical relationship
of the cold pool and low level ambient shear within MCSs, it is necessary
to discuss the kinematic structure of the archetypal mature MCS; that of
a leading convective line with a trailing stratiform precipitation region.
MCS research within the last decade has focused on the presentation of
two-dimensional and three-dimensional models of MCSs in order to aid operational
meteorologist in understanding the evolutional and physical structure of
MCSs (Przybylinski 1995). The most referenced model is that of Houze
et al. (1989), who provided a detailed two-dimensional schematic of MCS
structure via investigation of Doppler radar imagery of MCSs that occurred
in the PRE-STORM (Preliminary Regional Experiment for Stormscale Operational
and Research Meteorology) experiment conducted in May and June of 1985.
The Houze et al. (1989) model yields a good general overview of air flows,
circulations, and features found in a mature MCSs, albeit major discrepancies
of individual flow genesis and bearing do arise in comparison with some
models. A brief discussion of these internal dynamics and features
that constitute a leading line/trailing stratiform mature MCS will follow.
The kinematic structure of a mature
MCSs is characterized by two dominating flows. First, an upward-sloping,
high theta-e front-to-rear flow is initiated at the gust front upon where
it enters the convective updraft and accelerates rapidly towards the tropopause
(Houze et al. 1989; Weisman 1993). Thereafter, this flow exits rearward
of the convective cloud structure into the large nimbostratus anvil cloud
formed from the convective exhaust. An important characteristic of
this flow is the transport of ice crystals rearward into the anvil portion
of the system, providing nuclei for the formation of stratiform precipitation
rearward of the leading convective line (Houze et al. 1989).
The second distinguishing storm-relative current
is the downward-sloping rear-to-front flow (also referred to as the rear-inflow
jet). This distinctive low theta-e flow enters the rear of the storm
in the midlevels where it remains elevated as it advances forward.
When the rear-to-front current approaches the convective line, the flow
quickly descends eventually combining with precipitation downdrafts to
aid in convergence at the gust front (Houze et al. 1989). Fovell
(1990) determined that the most significant contribution to the mass of
the cold pool, and thus the affiliated convective regeneration, was by
the rear-to-front flow. The intensity of the rear-to-front flow varies
greatly from one individual MCS to another because of flow modification
by the ambient conditions and flow dependence on what evolutional stage
the storm is in at the time (Smull and Houze 1987).
Lemone et al. (1984) found that the horizontal
flow acceleration in the middle layers of the stratiform region is due
to a hydrostatically induced pressure perturbation. A pressure minimum
develops directly rearward of the convective updrafts producing a net flow
inward toward the front of the convective line. Brown (1979) postulates
that a secondary, elongated geopotential depression formulates in the middle
layers due to latent heat release (from the freezing of supercooled water
droplets) of the rearward exiting convective plume and the saturated ascent
of rain cooled air from the stratiform region. Numerical simulations
by Weisman (1990, 1992, 1993) confirm formation of rear inflow in the vicinity
of the melting layer. The midlevel mesolows act to draw air inward
due to the pressure gradient force. Formation of both the front-to-rear
and rear-to-front flows does not occur until the horizontal vorticity associated
with the cold pool is intensified and overwhelms the circulation of the
ambient shear (Weisman 1992). This system-relative current
of air is crucial in supplying potentially cold and dry midlevel air to
aid in the genesis of convective and system-scale downdrafts (Weisman 1992;
Smull and Houze 1987)
Cold Pool/Shear Interaction
Significant to the sustainment of MCSs is
the generation of a deep cold pool (Weisman 1992). As previously
described, CAPE and the relative humidity of the low and midlevels are
significant determinants of cold pool strength and depth (Rotunno et al.
1988; BMB). Studies using 2D and 3D nonhydrostatic convection-resolving
models by Rotunno et al. (1988), Weisman (1988, 1992, 1993), and Skamarock
et al. (1994) have focused on identifying the structure and evolution of
the leading convective line. By varying CAPE and wind shear vectors,
these modeling efforts have provided detailed descriptions of the dynamics
within MCSs. The ensuing discussion will explain the dynamic situation
between the cold pool and ambient vertical shear that is described in these
modeling efforts.
The Cold Pool
It is well documented that a cold pool engenders
below the cumulonimbi due to evaporative cooling and precipitation loading
in the convective-scale downdraft (Weisman and Przybylinski 1998;
BMG; Weisman 1993; Houze et al. 1989). Entrainment of midlevel low theta-e
aids in enhancing evaporational cooling, further strengthening the downdraft
and the cold pool (Rotunno et al. 1988). It may be determined, using
the hydrostatic equation, that since buoyancy is negative within the cold
pool, the cold pool is characterized by higher pressure (relative to its
surroundings). Further, utilizing the horizontal momentum equation,
it may be concluded that the cold pool will spread outward in response
to induced horizontal pressure gradients (Weisman and Przybylinski 1998).
Generation of the horizontal pressure gradient produces vorticity at the
edge of the cold pool. This vorticity is characterized by diverging
flow at the surface, upward motion at the leading edge of the cold pool,
along with a return flow aloft toward the center of the cold pool.
If a warm pool (positively buoyant cumulonimbi) were placed over the cold
pool, a mesolow is generated between the two pools (as previously described).
This dynamic situation produces vertically stacked vorticity couplets of
opposite signs, creating strong midlevel convergence (Weisman and Przybylinski
1998).
A cold pool spreading in a windless
environment is likely to produce convergence and lifting along its leading
edge which can trigger new cells (Weisman 1993). However, if vertical
wind shear is occurring in the environment, and if the low level wind shear
vector is perpendicular to the spreading cold pool, cell regeneration may
be expected to occur on a distinct flank of the spreading cold pool (Weisman
1993). The ambient, low-level vertical wind shear generates a horizontal
vorticity that is opposite the vorticity associated with the cold pool
(Weisman and Przybylinski 1998). The optimal conditions for cell
regeneration along a spreading cold pool occur when the horizontal vorticity
generated by the buoyancy gradient at the edge of the cold pool is balanced
by the opposing horizontal vorticity inherent in the low-level vertical
wind shear (Weisman 1993; Rotunno et al. 1988). Weisman (1993) hypothesizes
that this mechanism, alone, may explain the strength and longevity of MCSs.
Evolution of the MCS
In the early stage of MCS evolution,
convective cells form along some pre-existing linear forcing feature.
Ambient vertical wind shear provides additional horizontal vorticity to
the already established horizontal vorticity produced by the positively
buoyant, convective cell (Weisman and Przybylinski 1998). The summation
of the two circulations causes the convective cells to lean downshear (Rotunno
et al. 1988; Weisman 1992).
.
Notice the couplet at the front of the gust front.
Image from COMET.
As precipitation continues to fall below the cumulonimbi,
a cold pool is created. The cold pool systematically expands and
strengthens as the sequence of cells continually feeds the pool with negatively
buoyant air (Weisman and Przbyklinski 1998). As previously described, this
low-level cold pool is developed by several mechanisms: (1) precipitation
fallout which induces downward momentum or drag, (2) evaporation of precipitation
as it travels through mid-level dry air causing negative buoyancy (Houze,
1993). The downdraft and the cold pool interact to form the mesohigh
at the surface and to drive surface outflow, low-level convergence, and
initiation of a gust front (Houze et al, 1989; Weisman, 1992; Bentley,
1995).
As the cold pool is engendered below
the convection, increased negative horizontal vorticity at the front of
the cold pool corresponds with the positive horizontal vorticity inherent
in the ambient shear. When the cold pool circulation becomes strong
enough to balance the horizontal vorticity associated with the ambient
shear, a balance is achieved which gives rise to an equilibrium in the
system, producing an erect updraft (Weisman 1992; Weisman and Przybylinski
1998). This creates a region of substantial deep uplift at the edge
of the cold pool, which allows for the development of strong convective
cells. Intense cells will continue to regenerate along the cold pool
edge as long as these two horizontal vortices are coupled and a mesohigh
is in place (Houze et al, 1989; Weisman, 1990; Rotunno et al., 1988).
The early stages of MCS evolution involve
the formation of a squall line composed of individual strong cells without
the presence of a rearward stratiform rain region (Weisman et al., 1988).
The persistence of precipitation within the convective line systematically
acts to strengthen the cold pool, increasing the depth of the pool.
Thus, the horizontal vorticity associated with the cold pool is intensified
which overwhelms the circulation that is allied with the ambient shear
(Weisman 1992; Weisman and Przybylinski 1998). This causes the system
to tilt upshear. At this point in MCS evolution, the squall line
is characterized by a sequence of cells that initiate at leading edge of
the cold pool, then mature and eventually decay as they advect rearward
over the cold pool (Weisman and Przybylinski 1998). In addition,
the cells that compose the squall line become less intense in this stage
because the lifting at the leading edge is not as strong as it was when
the updraft was being generated by a balanced vorticity couplet.
Further rearward advection of decaying cells produces the lighter, more
stratiform region of precipitation behind the leading convective line that
is characteristic of mature MCSs (Houze et al, 1989; Weisman, 1992).
The conceptual model put forth by Houze et al. (1989) is representative
of this stage of MCS evolution. Thus, two mesoscale storm-relative
airflows and multiple mesolows and mesohighs dominate the system at this
stage.
The evolutional timeframe for an MCS to become
upshear-tilted is dependent on a pair of factors. First, the overall
strength and depth of the cold pool determines the amount of lift available
at the gust front at any point in the storm evolution (Weisman and Przybylinski
1998). A deeper cold pool slows the upshear evolution. The environmental
variables that determine the strength of the cold pool have previously
been discussed. Further, the magnitude and orientation of the shear
determines if the vorticity associated with the cold pool may be balanced
or unbalanced (Weisman 1992). In general, the deeper and stronger
the shear layer, the more intense the circulation associated with the ambient
shear and, thus, the longer the upshear evolution will take (Weisman 1992,
1993; Weisman and Przybylinski 1998). However, if the shear is too
strong, the updrafts may be torn apart before they can grow into mature
cells (Weisman and Przybylinski 1998). As is clearly apparent, successful
forecasting of MCS structure and strength is dependent on the examination
of hodographs.
Rear-Inflow Jet
As the system evolves, two separate flows
become recognizable and converge to form an individual downdraft within
the convective, squall line region (Bentley 1995). The initiation
of the first inflow occurs ahead of the system where uplift along the gust
front is generated. This flow separates at the cloud base; one branch
continuing upward aiding in convection, the second current proceeds to
the surface due to negative buoyancy created by precipitation. This
second branch acts to sustain outflow at the surface needed for the constant
propagation of the gust front (Schmidt et al. 1991).
The second major system-relative current is
the rear-inflow jet (RIJ) that originates in the mid-levels within the
elevated mixed layer of a maturing MCS (See dashed line in Figure 3c and
3d). The rear inflow does not develop until the system becomes
tilted upshear. An upshear-tilted MCS is dominated by the spreading
of convective cells spread rearward, which transports warm air aloft (Weisman
1992). As previously discussed, the dynamic situation of a
cold pool at the surface with warm air aloft produces a negative pressure
perturbation in the midlevels. This generation of an elongated
mesolow in the midlevels produces a net inflow into the center of the system
(Weisman and Przybylinski 1998). Furthermore, the generation of the
rear-inflow jet may be explained from a horizontal vorticity perspective
(Weisman, 1992). Negative horizontal vorticity forms in the midlevels
due to positive buoyancy in the warm plume trailing the squall line.
Subsidence induced warming overwhelms evaporative cooling producing the
positive buoyancy (Bentley, 1995). Positive horizontal vorticity
is formed at the rear of the cold pool due to negative buoyancy caused
by outflow of air from the cold pool at the surface. This vertically
stacked horizontal vorticity couplet is responsible for the generation
of the low ?e rear-inflow jet (Weisman and Przybylinski 1998).
The intensity of the RIJ is controlled by
the strength of the buoyancy gradients generated by the warm plume (front-to-rear
flow) and the cold pool (Weisman and Przybylinski 1998). Because
the buoyancy gradients are directly related to the temperatures of the
warm plume and the cold pool, the relative strength of the RIJ may be determined
by the thermodynamic instability in the environment (Weisman 1992).
Increasing the maximum potential temperature excess for a rising parcel
produces an increase in the potential warming of the warm plume (Weisman
and Przybylinski 1998). Further, increasing lapse rates and increasing
dryness in the midlevels increases the potential cooling of the cold pool
(Weisman and Prybylinski 1998; Weisman 1992). Hence, a large amount
of CAPE is conducive to the development of a strong rear-inflow jet (Weisman
1993).
Additionally, Weisman (1993) determined that
strong low-level vertical shear maximizes a parcel's potential temperature
excess through the reduction of mixing along the parcel's path. Stronger
low-level vertical shear intensifies lifting at the edge of the cold pool.
This enhanced uplift produces a stronger front-to-rear flow that functionally
transports warm air rearward. Increasing the temperature of the warm
plume enhances the horizontal vorticity rearward, which ultimately strengthens
the RIJ (Weisman and Przybylinski 1998). Finally, synoptic-scale
influences (e.g. strong polar jet, intense mid-level-relative winds) may
aid in the development of a rear-inflow jet (Johns 1993; Weisman and Przybylinski
1998).
The Role of the Rear-Inflow Jet
Rotunno et al. (1988) describe that the cold
pool dominated, upshear-tilted phase is generally the beginning of the
decaying stage in MCS evolution (Weisman 1993). However, if
buoyancy gradients aloft are strong relative to the cold pool, a strong,
elevated rear-inflow jet may halt the decay of the MCS (Weisman 1992; Weisman
and Przybylinski 1998). Along with an increase in system longevity,
the overall intensity of the convective line may increase. This addition
in storm strength and duration may be explained via the addition of rear-inflow
induced speed shear (Weisman 1993). The speed shear associated with
the rear inflow jet, below the level of maximum shear, produces horizontal
vorticity that is the same sign as the ambient shear. Above the level
of maximum shear, negative horizontal vorticity is generated. This
speed shear induced horizontal vorticity is the same sign as the vorticity
generated by the cold pool (Weisman 1992). The juxtaposition of these
horizontal vortices diminishes the net impact of the strong cold pool circulation
that is overwhelming the ambient shear rotation (Weisman and Przybylinski
1998). Hence, the convective updrafts become vertically erect once more,
intensifying the leading squall. An intense (20 - 30 m/s relative
to storm motion) RIJ is a characteristic of developing bow echoes (Weisman
1992).
Idealized elevated RIJ. Image from COMET.
Weisman (1992), via modulation of simulations, established that an elevated RIJ is associated with large convective instability (CAPE) and strong vertical wind shear. If the environment contains weak vertical shear and minimal CAPE, a descending RIJ may be established. A RIJ that surges to the surface well behind the convective line is attributed to weak buoyancy gradients affiliated with the warm air aloft. In this case, the negative horizontal vorticity generated by the cold pool is of the same sign of the vorticity associated with the RIJ (Weisman and Przybylinski 1998). This vorticity summation produces a cold pool circulation that overwhelms the ambient vertical shear creating a upshear-tilted, weakening MCS.
Bookend Vortices
Common to mature MCS 3D structure are line-end
vortices. These "bookend" vortices are located at the extremities
of the convective squall line forming a poleward mesocyclone and equatorward
mesoanticyclone (Weisman and Przybylinski 1998). Three dimensional numerical
simulations by Weisman (1993) and Skamarock et al. (1995) found that these
vortex pairs are especially important in the generation of severe bow echoes
that are affiliated with an increase in straight line winds at the surface.
A tilting and stretching of the horizontal
vortex intrinsic in the ambient vertical wind induces the vortices (Skamarock
et al.1995). Acceleration of the flow around the vortices causes
a decrease in pressure fields. A region of higher pressures separates the
low pressure analogous with each vortex, which produces an increase in
flow (RIJ) between the two "bookend" vortices (Weisman 1990). An intensification
of the RIJ of 10 - 15 m/s may occur if the bookend vortices are not widely
spaced (< 60 km) along the squall line (Weisman and Przybylinski
1998). Eventually, the Coriolis force allows the poleward vortex
to eventually grow to dominance leading to an asymmetric MCS and skewing
of the shear field (Houze et al. 1989).
Notice the influence of the rear-inflow jet on the system - causes
bowing. Also, notice how the poleward vortex becomes dominant in
the later stages. Image from COMET.
Concluding Remarks
This survey demonstrates that the low-level environment
is critical in determining MCS strength and evolution. The convectively
generated cold pool and ambient low-level shear modulate convective updraft
strength in the leading squall line. When the horizontal vorticity
associated with the cold pool balances the circulation induced by the low-level
environmental shear, intense, erect updrafts are generated. The system
begins to tilt upshear as the cold pool induced horizontal vorticity strengthens.
RIJ initiation and strengthening may abate the detrimental affects the
amplifying cold pool circulation has on the system. The elevated
RIJ generates horizontal vorticity opposite the cold pool circulation that
reconstitutes system balance, allowing the system to reach a quasi-steady
state. Additionally, the generation of "bookend" vortices may intensify
the RIJ, which could induce bowing in leading convective line echo structure,
indicative of strong straight-line winds.
Both numerical simulations and MCS observations
verify that large amounts of convective instability and strong low-level
ambient vertical shear are essential in the generation of a quasi-steady
MCS. MCS genesis regions are typically located under ridges of high
pressure where convective instability is ordinarily high (BMB).
Increasing CAPE enhances buoyancy gradients within the MCS, which increases
cell severity, strengthens the RIJ, creates stronger line-end vortices,
and ultimately attenuates system lifetime (Weisman and Przybylinski 1998).
Additionally, MCS synoptic environments are typified by a quasi-stationary
front upon where a surface low pressure center may form. This surface
low may engender line normal low-level winds that aid in strengthening
system-relative convergence and augmenting system longevity (BMB).
Future examinations and numerical simulations
will likely focus on MCSs that form in strong-dynamic low instability environments
(i.e. cold season events). Additionally, regional Doppler radar data
must be incorporated into future studies to further describe internal MCS
kinematics. Operationally, to successfully predict the intensity
and evolution of MCSs, meteorologists must be able to assimilate the wealth
of technological information (e.g. real-time mesoscale models and weather
processing systems) available as well as understand MCS dynamics and structure.
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