AREA WEATHER SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
552 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2003
THE STORM THAT BROUGHT A WINTRY MIX OF WEATHER TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS
WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI LATE TUESDAY. THE STORM IS
FORECAST TO TRACK RAPIDLY INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. IN ITS WAKE THE STORM LEFT 4 TO 8 INCHES OF NEW SNOW
ACROSS THE AREAS AROUND SUPERIOR NEBRASKA...AND FROM AROUND MANKATO
TO OSBORNE IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. OTHERWISE...SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
AVERAGED BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW.
AS THE STORM TRACKS NORTHEAST...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...FREEZING
RAIN AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW WILL PLAGUE MUCH OF IOWA AND
MISSOURI OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
A BLIZZARD WARNING COVERS MUCH OF CENTRAL IOWA TONIGHT...WHILE WINTER
STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF IOWA AND A LARGE
PART OF WESTERN MISSOURI. TO THE WEST...DECREASING WINDS AND
INCREASING COLD IS ON TAP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
WEDNESDAY SHOWS THE STORM EXITING OUR REGION WHICH WILL ALLOW HIGH
PRESSURE TO TAKE OVER BRIEFLY. THIS WILL PROVIDE MOST LOCATIONS WITH
A MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY DURING THE DAY.
TONIGHTS LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS WYOMING AND NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...TO THE 40S IN
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. WEDNESDAYS HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 10
DEGREES IN NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...TO THE MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE 40S
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND MISSOURI.
$$
LEW
AREA WEATHER SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
338 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2003
A STORM SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
INTO
CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW OVER MUCH OF EASTERN
NEBRASKA...WESTERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WILL GRADUALLY TAPER
TO FLURRIES TONIGHT AS THE STORM MOVES EAST. STRONG NORTH WINDS
WILL ALSO CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. RAIN OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI WILL CHANGE TO SNOW
THIS EVENING...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET
POSSIBLE. A VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ARE
POSTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT EASTERN IOWA
AND EASTERN MISSOURI WHERE PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA TO THE LOWER AND MID 20S OVER NORTHERN
MISSOURI. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.
$$
KING/DDN
NEBRASKA WEATHER SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
325 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2003
A WINTER STORM WAS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW REPORTED. HOWEVER...CLEARING
SKIES WERE FOUND OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. AS OF 3 PM...5
INCHES OF SNOW WAS REPORTED AT TECUMSEH...WITH 1 TO 4 INCHES COMMON
OVER MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. THE SNOW WAS
STILL FALLING...WITH MORE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES AT 3 PM RANGED FROM 19 IN COLUMBUS...TO 35 IN MCCOOK.
MOST LOCATIONS IN THE EAST WERE IN THE 20S...WITH LOWER 30S REPORTED
ACROSS THE WEST.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WERE CAUSING BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCING
VISIBILITY IN EASTERN NEBRASKA. WINDS WERE GUSTING AS HIGH AS 41
MPH IN BEATRICE...WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE
STATE. VISIBILITIES WERE 1/4 MILE FROM SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW IN
OMAHA AND LINCOLN.
$$
DDN
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY
NE
1137 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2003
IAZ043-055-056-NEZ034-044-045-050>053-065-066-078-091845-
BURT-BUTLER-DODGE-DOUGLAS-HARRISON IA-LANCASTER-MONONA
IA-SALINE-
SARPY-SAUNDERS-SEWARD-SHELBY IA-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BELLEVUE...BLAIR...CRETE...FREMONT...
HARLAN...LINCOLN...OMAHA...ONAWA...SEWARD...TEKAMAH
1137 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2003
.NOW...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT...
THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
TOTAL
SNOW AMOUNTS FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. BRISK NORTH
WINDS WILL
CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED
TO LESS
THAN HALF A MILE AT TIMES.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY
NE
915 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2003
.A STRONG WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL AFFECT EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA INTO TONIGHT. A WINTER STORM WARNING
IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE AREA GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
FAIRBURY
TO PLATTSMOUTH AND OAKLAND IOWA.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA NORTHWEST
OF
THE WINTER STORM WARNING. THE ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR TODAY AND
THIS EVENING FOR THE COMMUNITIES OF OMAHA...LINCOLN...SEWARD...
DAVID CITY...FREMONT...BLAIR...TEKAMAH...HARLAN IOWA AND
ONAWA
IOWA. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FOR TODAY ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INCLUDING COLUMBUS...NORFOLK...NELIGH...
HARTINGTON...WAYNE AND WEST POINT.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY
NE
1052 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2003
IAZ043-055-056-NEZ034-043>045-050>053-065-066-078-092345-
BURT-BUTLER-COLFAX-DODGE-DOUGLAS-HARRISON IA-LANCASTER-MONONA
IA-
SALINE-SARPY-SAUNDERS-SEWARD-SHELBY IA-WASHINGTON-
1052 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2003
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA.
.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
SNOW WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. SNOW COULD BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES.
BRISK NORTH
WINDS WILL CREATE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. A WINTER
WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. SNOWFALL FROM AROUND 3 TO 5 INCHES
IS
POSSIBLE BY MIDNIGHT.
PERSONS TRAVELING IN EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA
ARE URGED
TO DRIVE WITH EXTRA CAUTION.
000
AWUS43 KOAX 091602
AWSOMA
AREA WEATHER SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1000 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2003
LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER OKLAHOMA TODAY...THEN TRACK NORTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS TONIGHT. THIS STORM
WILL LAY DOWN A WIDE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA. DRIZZLE AND RAIN WILL CHANGE
TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW FROM CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND MUCH OF IOWA TODAY. SNOW ONLY IS EXPECTED
FARTHER NORTH FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO SOUTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA.
SNOW MAY BECOME HEAVY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM AREAS OF NORTHEAST
KANSAS
AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWEST IOWA AND MINNESOTA. STRONG
NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE LOW...CAUSING SOME BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. A VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES
ARE IN EFFECT AROUND THE REGION INTO TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE NEARLY STEADY IN THE 20S AND 30S...EXCEPT
FOR MUCH MILDER 40S AND 50S IN MISSOURI. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM PLUS SINGLE DIGITS IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...TO
THE 20S FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND MISSOURI INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA.
POLLACK/KLEMM
AREA WEATHER SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1000 AM CST TUE DEC
9 2003
LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER OKLAHOMA
TODAY...THEN TRACK
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS TONIGHT.
THIS STORM WILL LAY DOWN A WIDE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION
AS FAR
NORTH AS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. DRIZZLE
AND RAIN WILL CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND
SNOW FROM
CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND MUCH OF IOWA TODAY. SNOW ONLY IS
EXPECTED FARTHER NORTH FROM
CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO SOUTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA.
SNOW MAY BECOME
HEAVY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM AREAS
OF NORTHEAST KANSAS
AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWEST IOWA
AND MINNESOTA. STRONG
NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE LOW...CAUSING
SOME BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. A VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES
ARE IN EFFECT AROUND THE REGION INTO TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE NEARLY STEADY IN
THE 20S AND 30S...
EXCEPT FOR MUCH MILDER 40S AND 50S IN MISSOURI.
LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM PLUS SINGLE DIGITS
IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...TO THE 20S FROM SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AND MISSOURI
INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA.
$$
POLLACK/KLEMM
AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE...UPDATED
935
AM CST TUE DEC 9 2003
.DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE UPDATED CURRENT
PRODUCTS THIS MORNING TO JUST SIMPLIFY THE
AMOUNT OF ONGOING HEADLINES.
APPEARS THE RAIN/FREEZING RAIN TO SNOW
CHANGE OVER IS TAKING
PLACE AS THE MID LEVEL DRY LAYER GETS
SATURATED ALLOWING ICE
CRYSTALS TO FALL INTO THE GENERALLY BELOW
FREEZING LOW LAYER.
ALSO MADE A SMALL ADJUSTMENT TO THE WARNING
AREA TO GIVE IT A MORE
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTATION.
OTHERWISE...WILL HAVE
TO GET A BETTER LOOK AT NEW MODELS BEFORE
MAKING ANY OTHER ADJUSTMENTS
TO ONGOING FORECAST.
KING
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
WINTER STORM IN THE PROCESS
OF WINDING UP THIS MORNING WITH INITIAL
BAND OF SNOW MOVING ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA LATE
LAST NIGHT. THIS BAND
HAS LIFTED NORTH INTO SOUTH DAKOTA WITH
UPSTREAM AREA OF SNOW
OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WEAKENING. NEXT
BAND OF PRECIP MOVING
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SHOULD
SPREAD INTO THE CWA THIS
MORNING. HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED SNOWFALL
FROM 1 TO 3 NORTH TO
4 TO 8 SOUTH...WHICH IS A LITTLE SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH FROM WWE GRAPHIC
BASED ON SURFACE LOW TRACK. MAIN DYNAMICS
MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EXPECT MAIN ACCUMULATIONS
DURING THIS TIME. LITTLE CHANGE TO
REMAINDER OF FORECAST
WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES STILL INDICATED BY
MODELS TO TRACK ACROSS
THE PLAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.OAX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER STORM WARNING
THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
NEZ067-068-088>093
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
TODAY
NEZ011-012-015>018-030>033-042
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
THROUGH MIDNIGHT
NEZ034-043>045-050>053-065-066-078
IA....WINTER STORM WARNING
THROUGH MIDNIGHT
IAZ069-079-080-090-091
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
THROUGH MIDNIGHT
IAZ043-055-056
KING
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
430 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2003
.DISCUSSION...WILL BE BRIEF THIS MORNING WITH FORECAST CONCERN
WINTER WEATHER TODAY. ETA/GFS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN 24 HOURS AGO
WITH EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF UPPER TROF AND SURFACE...THOUGH
DIFFERENCED IN BOTH TIMING AND TRACK STILL EVIDENT...AND NEITHER HAS
BEEN STELLAR WITH THEIR QPF DEPICTION. BIGGEST QUESTION THAT REMAINS
IS HOW MUCH SNOW AND WHERE. FORCING AND LIFT ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE
WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY CERTAINLY NOT A
QUESTION. EXPECTING GENERALLY AMOUNTS OF 3-5 INCHES ACROSS THE
CWA...BUT POTENTIAL FOR FOR BANDED PRECIP FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS
ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES...AND FORECAST POSITION OF DEFORMATION ZONE
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON SUGGESTS POSSIBILITY OF
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN KS AND EXTREME SE NEB COUNTIES. FOR THESE
AND COLLABORATIVE REASONS...WILL UPGRADE THE ADVISORY TO A WARNING
IN THIS AREA...WITH THE REMAINING CWA CONTINUING IN AN ADVISORY.
COMPOUNDING THE SNOWFALL WILL BE NORTH WINDS SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 30
MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW IS LIKELY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO WORD AS SUCH IN FORECAST.
SNOW SHOULD QUICKLY COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
AND THE UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS GREAT WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES
MADE...PRIMARILY TO TEMPERATURES.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER STORM WARNING TODAY WEBSTER...NUCKOLLS...THAYER COUNTIES.
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TODAY ALL REMAINING NEBRASKA COUNTIES.
KS...WINTER STORM WARNING ALL KANSAS COUNTIES TODAY.
Storm Prediction Center
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2585
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1026 AM CST TUE DEC 09 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS / SE NEB / WRN IA / FAR NW MO
CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION
VALID 091626Z - 092130Z
BOUTS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES OF 1.0-1.5 IN/HR WILL CONTINUE
TO
INTENSIFY AND SPREAD E/NE THROUGH CNTRL KS/SE NEB INTO
WRN IA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. EAST OF THE HEAVY SNOW AXIS...MIX OF FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET WILL PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN KS THROUGH
21Z...AND
POSSIBLY SPREAD INTO SW IA/FAR NW MO.
GIVEN STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE REGION AND PERSISTENT
DEFORMATION BAND/ISENTROPIC ASCENT...INCREASING/STRONG
MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL COMPONENT /600-750 MB LAYER/ AND PROXIMITY
OF EPV
REDUCTION ZONE SUGGEST FURTHER POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED
SNOWFALL
ENHANCEMENT/FOCUSED MESOSCALE BANDING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS
CNTRL KS/FAR SE NEB INTO WRN IA -- NAMELY ALONG/NW OF
A SLN-BIE-AIO
LINE.
EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA...12Z ETA/RUC POINT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND P-TYPE ALGORITHMS SUGGEST CORRIDOR OF FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS ERN KS
DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR NE AS SW IA/FAR NW MO
BY 21Z...WITH
HOURLY LIQUID EQUIVALENTS OF 0.05-0.10 IN/HR OR GREATER.
..GUYER.. 12/09/2003
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...
40969746 42589525 41289394 39459523 37339625 38079965
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE...UPDATED
1010 PM CST MON DEC 8 2003
.UPDATE...
KNOX...CEDAR AND ANTELOPE COUNTIES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO A WARNING
FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. VISIBILITIES WERE
DOWN
TO A HALF MILE E OF NIOBRARA AND NIOBRARA HAD PICKED UP AN INCH IN
THE LAST HOUR. EXPECT SNOW BAND TO SHIFT E WITH TIME AND WITH
CONTINUED FRONTOGENESIS. SOME CONCERN THAT BETTER UVV WILL LIFT
JUST N OF THE WARNING AREA...HOWEVER...SNOW COMBINED WITH NORTH
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH AND BLOWING SNOW...SHOULD RESULT IN DANGEROUS
CONDITIONS.
$$
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST ISSUES CONTINUE TO SURROUND HOW TO HANDLE UPCOMING
WINTER WEATHER EVENT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
12Z ETA/GFS HAVE COME INTO A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT...THOUGH THEY
STILL HAVE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES. GENERALLY THE HPC PREFERRED SOLUTION
CONTINUES TO BE THE GFS...SO WILL TEND TO GO A BIT CLOSER TO ITS
SOLUTION.
CURRENT PRECIP AREA OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA SHOULD BE REINFORCED THIS
EVENING AS GOOD ISENTENTROPIC LIFT AT 295K CONTINUES. THIS IS
THEN
SHUT OFF LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...SO THINK MUCH OF THE
ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WILL END TUESDAY MORNING.
FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE.
IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA...HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT IT WILL
MISS OUT ON THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT TO THE NORTH...AND THE
DEFORMATION ZONE WHICH SETS UP FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE OPTED TO GO
WITH
LESSER TOTALS IN THIS AREA SINCE THE LIFT LOOKS A BIT MORE LIMITED.
GENERALLY THINK 2-4 INCHES LOOKS REASONABLE WITH SOME BLOWING AND
DRIFTING POSSIBLE AS NORTH WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH.
ACROSS THE SOUTH...THIS AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
DEFORMATION AXIS...THOUGH THE STRONGEST LIFT LOOKS TO SET UP EVEN
FURTHER SOUTH INTO MISSOURI AND KANSAS. THE WINTRY PRECIP ALSO
LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY IN THIS AREA...SO THINK THE PLAN FOR
NOW IS TO KEEP A WATCH ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
HEAVIER SNOW (POSSIBLY UP TO 6 INCHES) AND A POTENTIAL MIX OF WINTER
WEATHER TYPES BEFORE THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS
THURDAY...AND CURRENT LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST COVER THIS WELL.
ANOTHER SYSTEM IS NOW ALSO PICKED UP BY THE GFS FOR FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY...AND HAVE INTRODUCED A SNOW CHANCE IN THE GRIDS.
&&
.OAX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING NEZ011-012-016
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FOR
NEZ015>-017-018-030>033-042
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR
NEZ034-043>045-050>053-065-066-078
WINTER STORM WATCH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
NEZ067-068-088>093
IA....WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR
IAZ043-055-056-069
WINTER STORM WATCH TUEDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
IAZ079-080-090-091
&&
$$
KING/ZAPOTOCNY
481
FXUS63 KGID 090305
AFDGRI
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
905 PM CST MON DEC 8 2003
.UPDATE...SFC CYCLOGENESIS ON QUE OVR TX PANHANDLE THIS EVENING AND
COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH INTO KS. SOME CONCERN YET THAT A BIT OF FZDZ
MAY FORM YET UNDERNEATH MID LVL DRY SLOT OVR SE CWA AND BEFORE
ARRIVAL OF MID LVL MSTR SURGE COMING OUT OF CO/W KS...GIVEN OVERALL
INCREASING LG SCALE ASCENT TAKING PLACE IN ASSOCN/W EMERGING SRN
ROCKIES UPR TROF. COMP REF RTNS BEARING THIS OUT SE CWA.
SEEDER/FEEDER MECHANISM SHOULD TAKE OVER AS MID LVL WAA INDUCED
PRECIP BAND OVER WRN KS ARRIVES INTO CWA BTWN 06-08Z. OTHER AREA TO
WATCH IS INTENSE BANDED SNOW OVR SANDHILLS IN ASSOCN/W FRAGMENTED MID
LVL DEFORMATION ZONE AND INTENSE MID LVL FRONTOGENESIS. THIS FTR
CONTINUES SHIFTING SEWD AS OVERALL MID LVL TROF CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN/ELONGATE AND WILL BEAR WATCHING W/PRIMARY SNOW ACCUMLATION
TIED TO IT TUESDAY MORNING. UNKNOWN AT THIS POINT IS HOW ACTIVITY OVR
WRN KS EVOLVES AND ITS IMPACT HERE OVERNIGHT. CURRENT ADVISORY AND
SNOW AMOUNTS ON TRACK BUT WILL SHIFT BULK OF ACCUMLATION TO TUE AM.
ZONE UPDATE OUT BY 930 PM.
&&
T
.PREV DISCUSSION...SFC FRONT THRU THIS MORNING WITH LARGE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SETTING UP ACROSS ERN CO...NERN NM...SWRN KS
AND INTO NWRN OK NRN TX PANHANDLE. STRONG UPR TROF CURRENTLY WORKING
INTO WRN SPINE OF THE ROCKIES WITH MID TROF JUST STARTING TO PUSH E
OF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. STRONGEST LOW TO MID LVL
FORCING CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM FOUR CORNERS REGION...NE INTO THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS...WITH ANOTHER GOOD AREA OF LIFT ACROSS OK. LOW
CLOUDS WORKING THEIR WAY SLOWLY INTO NRN/NERN CWA WHERE TEMPS ARE
STILL IN THE MID 30S...WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA SOUTH OF THE
CLOUDS HAVE WARMED TO 40 OR THE LOW 40S WITH MID 40S EXTREME S.
SNOW EVENT STILL ON THE WAY...BUT STILL HARD TO PREDICT JUST WHERE
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL INTIMATELY FALL. WHEREAS 2 TO 3 DAYS AGO IT
LOOKED FAIRLY DRY...24 HRS AGO LOOKED NASTY AND WET...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH...NOW ETA HAS BACKED WAY OFF AGAIN WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS FAR
W/NW. GFS CONTINUES MUCH STRONGER AND LONGER IN DURATION WITH
HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS S/SE. HPC HAS REVOLVED AREA OF HIGHEST SNOW
POTENTIAL AND AMOUNTS 180 DEG OR SO...STARTING SE YESTERDAY...MOVING
AROUND TO THE S AND SW OVERNIGHT TO NW OF CWA TODAY. NO 10 INCH
SWATHS TODAY THOUGH. ETA SNOW TOTAL NOW HAVE BETWEEN 1 AND 5
INCHES...GFS 4 TO 9 INCHES. UK MET SUPPORTS GFS WHILE CANADIAN
SUPPORTS ETA. GFS PUTS 3 TO 8 TENTHS QPF OVR AREA FROM N TO
S...WHILE ETA PAINTS IN ROUGHLY 2 TO 5 TENTHS WITH WETTEST AREAS OVR
NW AND SE CWA. WHAT TO DO...WHAT TO DO. STAYING THE COURSE FOR THE
MOST PART KEEPING ADVISORY WORDING WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES MENTIONED FOR
TOTALS EVERYWHERE BASED ON MY OWN WEIGHTED AVG BETWEEN HE MDLS AND
USING MDL SOUNDING TO TRY AND FIGURE JUST HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE TO
SATURATE FROM MID LVLS DOWN. LOOKS LIKE EARLY MORNING THRU MID
MORNING OR NOON EVENT FOR MOST PART...WITH HARDEST SNOW FALLING OVR
TRI CITIES AREA FROM AROUND SUNRISE ON...NOT GOOD FOR THE
WORK/SCHOOL BUNCH. EVENING/MID BUNCH CAN TIP ADVISORY ONE WAY OR
ANOTHER IF NEEDED. BEYOND...NO SIG SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THRU WED
NIGHT...JUST TWEAKING OF HI/LO TEMPS. NEXT SYSTEM DUE ON FRIDAY.
LONG TERM...ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
THIS WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS BUT MOST LIFT AND
POSSIBLE SNOW TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH. WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS TO THE
AREA BUT IT SHOULD STAY DRY.
NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
BRING
CHANCES FOR SNOW TO THE ENTIRE REGION. DO NOT EXPECT IT TO BE
A
MAJOR WEATHER MAKER BUT WILL BRING MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO DURING THESE
COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND CHANCES FOR SNOW...TEMPS
WILL
NOT GO FAR WITH DAYTIME READINGS STUCK IN THE 30S.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ALL NEBRASKA COUNTIES TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY.
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ALL KANSAS COUNTIES TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY.
&&
$$
10/KISNER
507
FXUS63 KLBF 082111
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
310 PM CST MON DEC 8 2003
...FORECAST CONCERN IS ON WINTER STORM TODAY AND TUESDAY AND AGAIN
IN THE EXTENDED...
.NEAR TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST FOCUS IN THE NEAR
TERM IS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SNOW ONGOING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND
NORTH CENTRAL ZONES WHERE INITIAL SHORTWAVE ENTERED THE PICTURE
EARLIER THIS MORNING. WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE CONTINUES IN THESE AREAS
WITH DECENT MID LVL FRONTO BAND LINGERING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
FOCUS FOR PRECIP INITIALLY SHIFTS EWD AS UPPR WAVE PULLS OUT OF THE
PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FA BY MID EVENING. GOOD LIFT
COMMENCES EWD WITH STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING NOTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS UPPR LOW DIGS INTO OK..MID LVL FORCING
SHIFTS TO THE SRN AND ERN ZONES. MODELS HAD MANY DISAGREEMENTS THIS
AM WITH HANDLING OF THE MAX QPF BAND AND DEFORMATION ZONE. MODEL
DISCONTINUITY HAS WANED THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BULK OF THE FA
PAINTED WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES BY MORNING. CONFIDENCE NOT STRONG ENOUGH
TO PULL THE TRIGGER ON A WARNING FOR NOW. SHOULD SEE SNOW TAPER OFF
TO FLURRIES AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...WITH SNOW
ENDING IN THE ERN ZONES BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING
THROUGH MID DAY TUESDAY FOR EXCESSIVE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW
GIVEN 20 TO 30+ MPH NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIE OFF INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. BRIEF REPRIEVE ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE TRAVERSING THE NRN ZONES ON THURSDAY. WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN
ONGOING FCST.
.EXTENDED...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PROGRESSIVE UPPR LVL PATTERN
CONTINUES AS FORECAST FOCUS SHIFTS TO SNOW POSSIBILITIES THIS
WEEKEND. ON FRIDAY...WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF OF LOW PRESSURE PULLS OUT
OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH DECENT
BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PLACE (PER TIGHT H85 TEMP GRADIENT)...AND DECENT
RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THIS...THINK THIS WARRANTS MENTION FOR
LOW POPS FOR SNOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOW POPS LINGER INTO SUNDAY
AS TROF AXIS JUST TO OUR WEST. WEAK RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS
ON SUNDAY BETWEEN SYSTEMS BEFORE NEXT CLOSED LOW ARRIVES LATE ON
MONDAY.
&&
COORDINATED WITH UNR...FSD...OMA...GID AND GLD
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ALL ZONES...TONIGHT THROUGH MID DAY
TUESDAY...
$$
CLB
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